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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Don'Tale Mayes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1482

Elo1491

Don'Tale MayesvsJosh ParisianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Don'Tale Mayes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Josh Parisian wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Don'Tale Mayes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Parisian at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Parisian enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Don'Tale Mayes

Red Corner

Josh Parisian

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1482

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'4"

205.74 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Josh ParisianL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roque Martinez · Jun 21

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23

SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Don'Tale MayesMetricJosh Parisian

3.22

Strikes / min

4.55

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

46%

Strike defense

41%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

0.98

46%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Don'Tale MayesJosh Parisian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)Josh Parisian(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.7|Blue +8.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Don'Tale MayesTargetJosh Parisian

By target zone

48% acc · 60%

Head

64% acc · 70%

100% acc · 32%

Body

33% acc · 10%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

52% acc · 52%

Distance

55% acc · 60%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

80% acc · 40%

69% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

even

Josh Parisian rounds

Round 1Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control4:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:27

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 41

Sig Strikes

10 / 16

59.3%

Sig Str %

70.7%

117 / 147

Total Strikes

24 / 33

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:32

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Parisian	3 / 6	6 / 9	0 / 0
1	Don'Tale Mayes	6 / 14	40 / 51	3 / 4
2	Josh Parisian	2 / 2	5 / 6	0 / 2
2	Don'Tale Mayes	13 / 15	31 / 41	1 / 2
3	Josh Parisian	5 / 8	13 / 18	0 / 0
3	Don'Tale Mayes	6 / 12	46 / 55	2 / 2

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7