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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Don'Tale Mayes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1481

Don'Tale MayesvsCaio MachadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Don'Tale Mayes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Caio Machado wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Don'Tale Mayes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Machado at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Caio Machado has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Caio Machado has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Don'Tale Mayes

Red Corner

Caio Machado

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1482

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'6"

Height

6'4"

205.74 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Don'Tale MayesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Caio MachadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mick Parkin · Nov 23

vs Brendson Ribeiro · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Don'Tale MayesMetricCaio Machado

3.22

Strikes / min

5.82

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

46%

Strike defense

63%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

0.00

46%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+2.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Don'Tale MayesCaio Machado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)Caio Machado(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Don'Tale MayesTargetCaio Machado

By target zone

30% acc · 63%

Head

32% acc · 43%

62% acc · 27%

Body

76% acc · 33%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

78% acc · 24%

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 99%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

even

Caio Machado rounds

Round 1Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Caio Machado edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 183

Sig Strikes

76 / 159

36.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

73 / 190

Total Strikes

77 / 160

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caio Machado	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0
1	Don'Tale Mayes	20 / 55	26 / 62	0 / 0
2	Caio Machado	25 / 53	25 / 53	0 / 0
2	Don'Tale Mayes	26 / 61	26 / 61	0 / 0
3	Caio Machado	32 / 66	33 / 67	0 / 0
3	Don'Tale Mayes	21 / 67	21 / 67	0 / 0

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10

Caio Machado

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3