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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dong Hyun Ma won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1359

Dong Hyun MavsBrendan O'ReillyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dong Hyun Ma won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dong Hyun Ma wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Dong Hyun Ma wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dong Hyun Ma at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dong Hyun Ma enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dong Hyun Ma has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dong Hyun Ma

Red Corner

Brendan O'Reilly

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1379

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dong Hyun MaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takanori Gomi · Sep 17

vs Damien Brown · Feb 18

KOvs Devonte Smith · Feb 19

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Aug 19

DECvs Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer · Dec 19

latest

Brendan O'Reilly

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Aug 14

vs Vik Grujic · May 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dong Hyun MaMetricBrendan O'Reilly

2.84

Strikes / min

1.90

4.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

54%

Strike defense

39%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

2.22

33%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dong Hyun MaBrendan O'Reilly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dong Hyun Ma(8 fights)Brendan O'Reilly(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.3|Blue -20.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dong Hyun MaTargetBrendan O'Reilly

By target zone

44% acc · 38%

Head

64% acc · 64%

83% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 24%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

22% acc · 10%

Distance

46% acc · 24%

86% acc · 29%

Clinch

74% acc · 68%

81% acc · 62%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dong Hyun Ma rounds

even

Brendan O'Reilly rounds

Round 1Dong Hyun Ma edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Dong Hyun Ma edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:19

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Brendan O'Reilly edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:31

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 32

Sig Strikes

25 / 38

61%

Sig Str %

60.3%

98 / 116

Total Strikes

70 / 85

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:54

Ctrl Time

3:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan O'Reilly	3 / 8	9 / 14	0 / 1	0
1	Dong Hyun Ma	14 / 19	57 / 65	2 / 2	0
2	Brendan O'Reilly	5 / 7	21 / 23	0 / 0	1
2	Dong Hyun Ma	3 / 5	24 / 29	1 / 1	0
3	Brendan O'Reilly	17 / 23	40 / 48	0 / 1	0
3	Dong Hyun Ma	4 / 8	17 / 22	1 / 1	0

Dong Hyun Ma

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Brendan O'Reilly

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4