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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dong Hyun Kim won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1354

Dong Hyun KimvsPaulo ThiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Dong Hyun Kim won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDong Hyun Kim: WrestlervsPaulo Thiago: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Dong Hyun Kim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dong Hyun Kim at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dong Hyun Kim (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dong Hyun Kim

Red Corner

Paulo Thiago

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1491

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dong Hyun Kim

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Aug 14

SUBvs Joshua Burkman · May 15

KOvs Dominic Waters · Nov 15

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Dec 16

vs Colby Covington · Jun 17

latest

Paulo ThiagoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dong Hyun KimMetricPaulo Thiago

2.12

Strikes / min

1.71

1.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

58%

Strike defense

63%

2.93

TDs / 15 min

1.42

71%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dong Hyun KimPaulo Thiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dong Hyun Kim(10 fights)Paulo Thiago(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.2|Blue -137.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dong Hyun KimTargetPaulo Thiago

By target zone

56% acc · 82%

Head

0% acc

33% acc · 5%

Body

50% acc · 50%

60% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

0% acc

Distance

13% acc · 50%

Clinch

50% acc · 50%

67% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dong Hyun Kim rounds

even

Paulo Thiago rounds

Round 1Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:45

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:55

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:31

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 40

Sig Strikes

2 / 10

67.7%

Sig Str %

20%

76 / 104

Total Strikes

4 / 12

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:11

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paulo Thiago	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Dong Hyun Kim	2 / 2	27 / 34	1 / 2	1
2	Paulo Thiago	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Dong Hyun Kim	4 / 8	11 / 15	1 / 3	1
3	Paulo Thiago	0 / 5	2 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Dong Hyun Kim	16 / 30	38 / 55	1 / 1	0

Dong Hyun Kim

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9