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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dong Hyun Kim won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Elo1364

Dong Hyun KimvsJoshua BurkmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dong Hyun Kim won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:13

Style matchupDong Hyun Kim: WrestlervsJoshua Burkman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Joshua Burkman wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Dong Hyun Kim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Burkman at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Burkman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dong Hyun Kim (53.5%).
Dong Hyun Kim has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dong Hyun Kim

Red Corner

Joshua Burkman

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1491

Elo

1364

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dong Hyun Kim

oldest →

KOvs John Hathaway · Mar 14

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Aug 14

KOvs Dominic Waters · Nov 15

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Dec 16

vs Colby Covington · Jun 17

latest

Joshua BurkmanL5 streak

oldest →

vs Paul Felder · May 16

vs Zak Ottow · Oct 16

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Mar 17

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 17

SUBvs Alex Morono · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dong Hyun KimMetricJoshua Burkman

2.12

Strikes / min

2.69

1.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

58%

Strike defense

51%

2.93

TDs / 15 min

2.53

71%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dong Hyun KimJoshua Burkman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dong Hyun Kim(10 fights)Joshua Burkman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.8|Blue -126.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dong Hyun KimTargetJoshua Burkman

By target zone

70% acc · 87%

Head

31% acc · 45%

50% acc · 10%

Body

57% acc · 20%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

88% acc · 35%

By position

31% acc · 13%

Distance

42% acc · 55%

64% acc · 23%

Clinch

50% acc · 45%

95% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dong Hyun Kim rounds

even

Joshua Burkman rounds

Round 1Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:02

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Dong Hyun Kim edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:30

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:12

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 44

Sig Strikes

20 / 44

55%

Sig Str %

44.7%

135 / 165

Total Strikes

21 / 46

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:44

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joshua Burkman	7 / 16	8 / 18	0 / 1	0
1	Dong Hyun Kim	9 / 14	29 / 41	0 / 7	0
2	Joshua Burkman	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 1	0
2	Dong Hyun Kim	20 / 26	105 / 120	0 / 0	0
3	Joshua Burkman	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Dong Hyun Kim	1 / 4	1 / 4	1 / 1	1

Dong Hyun Kim

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Joshua Burkman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8