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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1491

Dong Hyun KimvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDong Hyun Kim: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dong Hyun Kim enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dong Hyun Kim (53.5%).
Dong Hyun Kim has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dong Hyun Kim

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dong Hyun KimW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Hathaway · Mar 14

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Aug 14

SUBvs Joshua Burkman · May 15

KOvs Dominic Waters · Nov 15

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Dec 16

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dong Hyun KimMetricColby Covington

2.12

Strikes / min

3.81

1.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

58%

Strike defense

54%

2.93

TDs / 15 min

3.64

71%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dong Hyun KimColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dong Hyun Kim(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dong Hyun KimTargetColby Covington

By target zone

32% acc · 84%

Head

31% acc · 38%

100% acc · 11%

Body

52% acc · 26%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

74% acc · 36%

By position

30% acc · 79%

Distance

39% acc · 57%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

53% acc · 38%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dong Hyun Kim rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:16Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:37

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:29

19Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 54

Sig Strikes

47 / 105

36%

Sig Str %

43.7%

64 / 102

Total Strikes

92 / 154

2 / 4

TDs

8 / 15

66.7%

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

10:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Colby Covington	10 / 28	19 / 39	3 / 6
1	Dong Hyun Kim	6 / 12	17 / 23	0 / 2
2	Colby Covington	18 / 34	34 / 51	2 / 5
2	Dong Hyun Kim	3 / 12	34 / 46	1 / 1
3	Colby Covington	19 / 43	39 / 64	3 / 4
3	Dong Hyun Kim	10 / 30	13 / 33	1 / 1

Dong Hyun Kim

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17