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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone
Elo1403
Yancy Medeiros

Donald CerronevsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:58

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Yancy Medeiros enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Yancy Medeiros
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1429
Elo
1403
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest
Yancy MedeirosL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Erick Silva · Jun 17
W
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19
L
vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20
L
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricYancy Medeiros
4.41
Strikes / min
4.36
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
53%
Strike defense
47%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.33
73%
Takedown defense
73%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1638 vs 1560Strikes43.6 vs 32.2Takedowns0.7 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.36Form-0.5 vs 0.8
Donald CerroneYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.8|Blue -25.8
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

16
36% acc · 57%
Head
17
24% acc · 68%
11
100% acc · 39%
Body
8
89% acc · 32%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
0

By position

24
46% acc · 86%
Distance
22
29% acc · 88%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 12%
3
75% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Donald Cerrone rounds
0
even
0
Yancy Medeiros rounds
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:21
Knockdowns3
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3
KD
0
28 / 57
Sig Strikes
25 / 79
49%
Sig Str %
31%
28 / 57
Total Strikes
26 / 80
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yancy Medeiros25 / 7926 / 800 / 00
1Donald Cerrone28 / 5728 / 570 / 10

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14