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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1491

Donald CerronevsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1429

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricRafael Dos Anjos

4.41

Strikes / min

3.48

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

53%

Strike defense

60%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.95

73%

Takedown defense

54%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.9|Blue +61.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

26% acc · 23%

Head

27% acc · 54%

62% acc · 53%

Body

56% acc · 36%

83% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

48% acc · 93%

Distance

33% acc · 77%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

47% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 80

Sig Strikes

39 / 109

50.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

43 / 83

Total Strikes

58 / 128

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

3:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	17 / 40	28 / 51	1 / 1
1	Donald Cerrone	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	15 / 37	23 / 45	1 / 2
2	Donald Cerrone	10 / 18	12 / 20	1 / 1
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	7 / 32	7 / 32	0 / 3
3	Donald Cerrone	19 / 40	20 / 41	0 / 0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32