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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1429

Elo1360

Donald CerronevsPatrick CoteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:35

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Patrick Cote

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1429

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Patrick Cote

oldest →

vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14

vs Joe Riggs · Apr 15

KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricPatrick Cote

4.41

Strikes / min

2.81

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

53%

Strike defense

48%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.68

73%

Takedown defense

43%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerronePatrick Cote

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Patrick Cote(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.8|Blue -68.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetPatrick Cote

By target zone

51% acc · 58%

Head

31% acc · 37%

78% acc · 19%

Body

68% acc · 37%

94% acc · 23%

Leg

86% acc · 26%

By position

56% acc · 66%

Distance

49% acc · 98%

62% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

85% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Patrick Cote rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:01

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns2

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 119

Sig Strikes

46 / 93

65.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

92 / 140

Total Strikes

57 / 111

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:44

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Patrick Cote	6 / 11	17 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	6 / 8	23 / 27	2 / 2	1
2	Patrick Cote	27 / 50	27 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Donald Cerrone	47 / 80	49 / 82	0 / 1	0
3	Patrick Cote	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 1	0
3	Donald Cerrone	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Patrick Cote

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12