← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1371

Donald CerronevsMyles JuryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMyles Jury: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Myles Jury has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Donald Cerrone has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Myles Jury

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1429

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Myles JuryL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 15

KOvs Mike de la Torre · Apr 17

vs Rick Glenn · Dec 17

KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 18

vs Andre Fili · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricMyles Jury

4.41

Strikes / min

2.94

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

53%

Strike defense

66%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

2.16

73%

Takedown defense

50%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneMyles Jury

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Myles Jury(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.9|Blue -57.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetMyles Jury

By target zone

14% acc · 16%

Head

16% acc · 33%

44% acc · 11%

Body

40% acc · 13%

84% acc · 73%

Leg

50% acc · 53%

By position

41% acc · 78%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

78% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Myles Jury rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control3:25

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 83

Sig Strikes

15 / 53

40%

Sig Str %

20%

54 / 105

Total Strikes

17 / 57

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 7

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:41

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Myles Jury	0 / 3	2 / 7	1 / 1	0
1	Donald Cerrone	1 / 3	13 / 20	0 / 0	2
2	Myles Jury	10 / 34	10 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Donald Cerrone	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Myles Jury	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 5	0
3	Donald Cerrone	24 / 43	29 / 48	1 / 1	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Myles Jury

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12