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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1

Elo1429

Elo1399

Donald CerronevsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:46

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mike Perry is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1429

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricMike Perry

4.41

Strikes / min

4.32

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

53%

Strike defense

52%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.81

73%

Takedown defense

78%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.9|Blue -29.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetMike Perry

By target zone

40% acc · 22%

Head

0% acc

80% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 55%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 45%

By position

50% acc · 44%

Distance

31% acc · 36%

100% acc · 56%

Clinch

100% acc · 55%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:40

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 13

Sig Strikes

11 / 20

69%

Sig Str %

55%

10 / 14

Total Strikes

11 / 20

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Perry	11 / 20	11 / 20	1 / 1	0
1	Donald Cerrone	9 / 13	10 / 14	0 / 1	1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15