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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1429

Elo1490

Donald CerronevsMelvin GuillardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:16

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMelvin Guillard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Melvin Guillard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Melvin Guillard has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Melvin Guillard

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1429

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricMelvin Guillard

4.41

Strikes / min

2.96

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

53%

Strike defense

66%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.30

73%

Takedown defense

61%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneMelvin Guillard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.6|Blue +61.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetMelvin Guillard

By target zone

43% acc · 75%

Head

33% acc · 80%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 20%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 40%

Clinch

55% acc · 60%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Melvin Guillard rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

10 / 28

44%

Sig Str %

35%

4 / 9

Total Strikes

10 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melvin Guillard	10 / 28	10 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11