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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1429

Elo1499

Donald CerronevsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:34

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1429

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricMatt Brown

4.41

Strikes / min

3.76

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

53%

Strike defense

55%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.68

73%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.9|Blue +69.9

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

37% acc · 73%

Head

46% acc · 60%

64% acc · 11%

Body

78% acc · 40%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

0% acc

By position

43% acc · 98%

Distance

53% acc · 89%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:32

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 147

Sig Strikes

70 / 128

54%

Sig Str %

50%

64 / 148

Total Strikes

73 / 131

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Brown	27 / 63	29 / 65	0 / 0	1
1	Donald Cerrone	34 / 72	35 / 73	0 / 1	0
2	Matt Brown	41 / 60	42 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Donald Cerrone	25 / 70	25 / 70	0 / 2	0
3	Matt Brown	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 1	0
3	Donald Cerrone	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25