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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5

Elo1429

Elo1480

Donald CerronevsLeon EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Saturday, June 23, 2018Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsLeon Edwards: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Leon Edwards

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1429

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Leon EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23

vs Colby Covington · Dec 23

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24

SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricLeon Edwards

4.41

Strikes / min

2.60

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

53%

Strike defense

52%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.25

73%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneLeon Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Leon Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.1|Blue +51.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetLeon Edwards

By target zone

25% acc · 28%

Head

35% acc · 44%

75% acc · 50%

Body

70% acc · 23%

54% acc · 22%

Leg

82% acc · 33%

By position

42% acc · 80%

Distance

44% acc · 74%

73% acc · 18%

Clinch

85% acc · 26%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Leon Edwards rounds

Round 1Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:44

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:12

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:57

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Leon Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:51

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 131

Sig Strikes

84 / 166

46.4%

Sig Str %

50.4%

64 / 136

Total Strikes

101 / 185

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 4

20%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Leon Edwards	16 / 32	19 / 36	0 / 2
1	Donald Cerrone	12 / 26	15 / 29	0 / 1
2	Leon Edwards	16 / 32	24 / 40	0 / 1
2	Donald Cerrone	12 / 26	12 / 27	0 / 2
3	Leon Edwards	19 / 38	19 / 38	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	15 / 37	15 / 37	0 / 3
4	Donald Cerrone	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 2
4	Leon Edwards	15 / 31	20 / 37	0 / 1
5	Leon Edwards	18 / 33	19 / 34	0 / 0
5	Donald Cerrone	11 / 22	12 / 23	1 / 1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights19