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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1356

Donald CerronevsKJ NoonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsKJ Noons: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
KJ Noons is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
KJ Noons has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

KJ Noons

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1429

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

KJ NoonsL2 streak

oldest →

vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13

KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · May 15

vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricKJ Noons

4.41

Strikes / min

3.68

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

53%

Strike defense

65%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.08

73%

Takedown defense

68%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneKJ Noons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)KJ Noons(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.4|Blue -72.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetKJ Noons

By target zone

44% acc · 65%

Head

24% acc · 40%

65% acc · 19%

Body

46% acc · 31%

86% acc · 15%

Leg

52% acc · 29%

By position

46% acc · 65%

Distance

34% acc · 98%

83% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

65% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

KJ Noons rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control1:58

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 152

Sig Strikes

42 / 122

51.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

130 / 213

Total Strikes

56 / 136

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	KJ Noons	20 / 60	20 / 60	0 / 0
1	Donald Cerrone	29 / 63	29 / 63	1 / 2
2	KJ Noons	16 / 40	18 / 42	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	26 / 46	49 / 73	2 / 4
3	KJ Noons	6 / 22	18 / 34	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	23 / 43	52 / 77	1 / 1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

KJ Noons

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5