← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

5 Rounds

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1429

Elo1541

Donald CerronevsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:18

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1429

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricJustin Gaethje

4.41

Strikes / min

6.48

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

53%

Strike defense

51%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.33

73%

Takedown defense

74%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.9|Blue +111.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

27% acc · 71%

Head

61% acc · 68%

67% acc · 24%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Leg

87% acc · 33%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

65% acc · 90%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 52

Sig Strikes

40 / 61

32%

Sig Str %

65%

17 / 52

Total Strikes

40 / 61

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Gaethje	40 / 61	40 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	17 / 52	17 / 52	0 / 0	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15