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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1429

Elo1456

Donald CerronevsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Jorge Masvidal has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1429

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricJorge Masvidal

4.41

Strikes / min

4.05

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

53%

Strike defense

64%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.38

73%

Takedown defense

72%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.6|Blue +27.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

23% acc · 33%

Head

51% acc · 62%

100% acc · 23%

Body

68% acc · 29%

87% acc · 43%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 74%

Clinch

82% acc · 16%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 65

Sig Strikes

58 / 102

32%

Sig Str %

57.5%

30 / 65

Total Strikes

58 / 102

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	40 / 72	40 / 72	0 / 0
1	Donald Cerrone	29 / 58	29 / 58	0 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22