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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1429

Elo1476

Donald CerronevsJohn MakdessiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:44

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJohn Makdessi: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
John Makdessi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Donald Cerrone has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

John Makdessi

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1429

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricJohn Makdessi

4.41

Strikes / min

5.52

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

53%

Strike defense

68%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.00

73%

Takedown defense

86%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap+1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneJohn Makdessi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)John Makdessi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +97.0|Blue -97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetJohn Makdessi

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

38% acc · 35%

63% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 47%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

56% acc · 97%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

John Makdessi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 171

Sig Strikes

72 / 129

41%

Sig Str %

55.5%

71 / 171

Total Strikes

72 / 129

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Makdessi	32 / 59	32 / 59	0 / 0
1	Donald Cerrone	31 / 78	31 / 78	0 / 0
2	John Makdessi	40 / 70	40 / 70	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	40 / 93	40 / 93	0 / 0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20