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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1429

Elo1516

Donald CerronevsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:31

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1429

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricJim Miller

4.41

Strikes / min

2.92

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.49

73%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.5|Blue +87.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetJim Miller

By target zone

36% acc · 43%

Head

28% acc · 40%

56% acc · 38%

Body

78% acc · 23%

78% acc · 19%

Leg

85% acc · 37%

By position

47% acc · 92%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:19

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 78

Sig Strikes

30 / 65

47%

Sig Str %

44.5%

41 / 82

Total Strikes

34 / 69

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jim Miller	22 / 46	26 / 50	1 / 4
1	Donald Cerrone	19 / 37	23 / 41	0 / 2
2	Jim Miller	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 2
2	Donald Cerrone	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40