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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1473

Donald CerronevsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1429

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricJeremy Stephens

4.41

Strikes / min

3.13

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

53%

Strike defense

57%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.10

73%

Takedown defense

61%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.9|Blue +43.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -83.0|Blue +83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

26% acc · 40%

Head

30% acc · 52%

91% acc · 23%

Body

58% acc · 24%

91% acc · 37%

Leg

73% acc · 24%

By position

45% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 96%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 192

Sig Strikes

46 / 115

45%

Sig Str %

39.7%

87 / 192

Total Strikes

50 / 119

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 1
1	Donald Cerrone	29 / 58	29 / 58	0 / 1
2	Jeremy Stephens	12 / 31	16 / 35	0 / 2
2	Donald Cerrone	27 / 66	27 / 66	1 / 1
3	Jeremy Stephens	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	31 / 68	31 / 68	0 / 1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27