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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1

Elo1429

Elo1480

Donald CerronevsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1429

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricEdson Barboza

4.41

Strikes / min

4.14

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

53%

Strike defense

55%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.43

73%

Takedown defense

73%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.1|Blue +51.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

40% acc · 55%

Head

45% acc · 61%

100% acc · 18%

Body

78% acc · 25%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

57% acc · 14%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns1

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 20

Sig Strikes

28 / 54

55%

Sig Str %

51%

11 / 20

Total Strikes

28 / 54

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edson Barboza	28 / 54	28 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 1	2

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32