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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1491

Donald CerronevsEddie AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsEddie Alvarez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Eddie Alvarez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Donald Cerrone has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Eddie Alvarez

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1429

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Eddie Alvarez

oldest →

vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricEddie Alvarez

4.41

Strikes / min

4.32

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

53%

Strike defense

55%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

2.92

73%

Takedown defense

92%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneEddie Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.5|Blue +62.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetEddie Alvarez

By target zone

33% acc · 39%

Head

32% acc · 75%

80% acc · 32%

Body

42% acc · 21%

96% acc · 30%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

49% acc · 74%

Distance

30% acc · 71%

74% acc · 19%

Clinch

58% acc · 29%

55% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Eddie Alvarez rounds

Round 1Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:05

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:15

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:37

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 166

Sig Strikes

48 / 138

51.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

101 / 182

Total Strikes

64 / 157

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Alvarez	23 / 63	28 / 68	0 / 2
1	Donald Cerrone	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 1
2	Eddie Alvarez	16 / 36	18 / 38	0 / 2
2	Donald Cerrone	27 / 57	27 / 57	0 / 0
3	Eddie Alvarez	9 / 39	18 / 51	0 / 1
3	Donald Cerrone	42 / 62	55 / 78	0 / 1

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7