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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Darren Till won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1429

Elo1443

Donald CerronevsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Darren Till won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:20

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Darren Till wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Darren Till (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Darren Till

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1429

Elo

1443

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Darren TillL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricDarren Till

4.41

Strikes / min

2.30

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.55

73%

Takedown defense

69%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.8|Blue +14.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetDarren Till

By target zone

25% acc · 14%

Head

43% acc · 96%

63% acc · 36%

Body

88% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

57% acc · 93%

Distance

45% acc · 75%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

36% acc · 17%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Darren Till rounds

Round 1Darren Till edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 24

Sig Strikes

24 / 55

58%

Sig Str %

43%

14 / 24

Total Strikes

24 / 55

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Till	24 / 55	24 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Donald Cerrone	14 / 24	14 / 24	1 / 2	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11