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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone
Elo1521

Donald CerronevsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:01

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +104 American odds

+$104 profit

$204 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
+104
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-114
(53%)
1429
Elo
1521
43
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricCharles Oliveira
4.41
Strikes / min
3.23
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
53%
Strike defense
48%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
2.29
73%
Takedown defense
54%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1519Strikes61.5 vs 18.5Takedowns1.5 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.50Form1.0 vs 0.2
Donald CerroneCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -92.6|Blue +92.6
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -182.0|Blue +182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

22
45% acc · 73%
Head
5
26% acc · 50%
2
50% acc · 7%
Body
3
50% acc · 30%
6
86% acc · 20%
Leg
2
50% acc · 20%

By position

14
41% acc · 47%
Distance
10
37% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
0% acc
15
63% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Donald Cerrone rounds
0
even
0
Charles Oliveira rounds
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:12
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 60
Sig Strikes
10 / 29
50%
Sig Str %
34%
32 / 63
Total Strikes
10 / 29
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Oliveira10 / 2910 / 290 / 00
1Donald Cerrone30 / 6032 / 630 / 00

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36