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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1429

Elo1490

Donald CerronevsBenson HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Benson Henderson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Benson Henderson

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1429

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Benson HendersonW2 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Thomson · Jan 14

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricBenson Henderson

4.41

Strikes / min

2.93

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

1.79

53%

Strike defense

63%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

2.40

73%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneBenson Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.8|Blue +61.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetBenson Henderson

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

18% acc · 15%

71% acc · 35%

Body

69% acc · 23%

86% acc · 32%

Leg

96% acc · 62%

By position

45% acc · 93%

Distance

56% acc · 98%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Benson Henderson rounds

Round 1Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:29

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 125

Sig Strikes

86 / 155

45.3%

Sig Str %

55%

58 / 126

Total Strikes

93 / 162

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Benson Henderson	27 / 47	27 / 47	0 / 1
1	Donald Cerrone	19 / 43	19 / 43	0 / 0
2	Benson Henderson	34 / 62	37 / 65	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	16 / 38	17 / 39	1 / 2
3	Benson Henderson	25 / 46	29 / 50	0 / 0
3	Donald Cerrone	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 5

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14