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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · KO/TKO

Elo1429

Elo1478

Donald CerronevsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDonald Cerrone: Submission grapplervsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1429

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricAlex Morono

4.41

Strikes / min

4.90

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

53%

Strike defense

55%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.32

73%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donald CerroneAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

22% acc · 29%

Head

38% acc · 80%

100% acc · 59%

Body

71% acc · 14%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

47% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 86%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

45% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donald Cerrone rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

35 / 84

48%

Sig Str %

41%

18 / 36

Total Strikes

41 / 90

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Morono	35 / 84	41 / 90	0 / 2	0
1	Donald Cerrone	17 / 35	18 / 36	0 / 2	0

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23