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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone
Elo1362
Adriano Martins

Donald CerronevsAdriano MartinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:40

Model Prediction: Adriano Martins wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adriano Martins at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Adriano Martins is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Adriano Martins has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Adriano Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Donald Cerrone
Red Corner
VS
Adriano Martins
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1429
Elo
1362
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest
Adriano MartinsL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Juan Puig · Jul 14
W
vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 15
W
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 15
L
vs Leonardo Santos · Oct 16
L
KOvs Kajan Johnson · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donald CerroneMetricAdriano Martins
4.41
Strikes / min
1.80
4.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
53%
Strike defense
65%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.83
73%
Takedown defense
81%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1576 vs 1520Strikes45.7 vs 16.0Takedowns0.9 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.27 vs 1.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Donald CerroneAdriano Martins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Adriano Martins(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +66.9|Blue -66.9
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donald CerroneTargetAdriano Martins

By target zone

2
14% acc · 13%
Head
11
42% acc · 85%
6
40% acc · 38%
Body
0
0% acc
8
100% acc · 50%
Leg
2
100% acc · 15%

By position

16
43% acc · 100%
Distance
13
46% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Donald Cerrone rounds
0
even
0
Adriano Martins rounds
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 37
Sig Strikes
13 / 29
43%
Sig Str %
44%
16 / 37
Total Strikes
13 / 29
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Adriano Martins13 / 2913 / 290 / 00
1Donald Cerrone16 / 3716 / 371 / 10

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37

Adriano Martins

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7