Lightweight

3 Rounds

Don Madge won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1528

Don MadgevsFares ZiamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Don Madge won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDon Madge: WrestlervsFares Ziam: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Don Madge wins(84.8%)

Actual result: Don Madge wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Don Madge at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Don Madge (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Don Madge

Red Corner

Fares Ziam

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1492

Elo

1528

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Don Madge

oldest →

KOvs Te Edwards · Oct 18

latest

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Don MadgeMetricFares Ziam

2.08

Strikes / min

2.87

0.74

Strikes absorbed / min

1.53

67%

Strike defense

65%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

1.73

80%

Takedown defense

71%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34evenly matched on net striking+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Don MadgeFares Ziam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Don Madge(2 fights)Fares Ziam(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.7|Blue +35.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Don MadgeTargetFares Ziam

By target zone

31% acc · 52%

Head

23% acc · 60%

86% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 10%

67% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

30% acc · 38%

Distance

32% acc · 80%

38% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

71% acc · 48%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Don Madge rounds

even

Fares Ziam rounds

Round 1Don Madge edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 2Don Madge edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:51

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Don Madge edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control4:22

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 49

Sig Strikes

10 / 31

42.7%

Sig Str %

24.3%

72 / 111

Total Strikes

70 / 96

3 / 12

TDs

0 / 4

27.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:35

Ctrl Time

2:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fares Ziam	2 / 10	30 / 41	0 / 3
1	Don Madge	5 / 12	21 / 29	0 / 5
2	Fares Ziam	8 / 15	21 / 29	0 / 1
2	Don Madge	7 / 20	25 / 46	1 / 3
3	Fares Ziam	0 / 6	19 / 26	0 / 0
3	Don Madge	9 / 17	26 / 36	2 / 4

Don Madge

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11