← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jiri Prochazka won · KO/TKO

Elo1522

Elo1503

Dominick ReyesvsJiri ProchazkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · Saturday, May 1, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jiri Prochazka won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsJiri Prochazka: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jiri Prochazka wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Jiri Prochazka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jiri Prochazka at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jiri Prochazka has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Jiri Prochazka is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Jiri Prochazka

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1522

Elo

1503

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Jiri Prochazka

oldest →

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Apr 24

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 24

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Jan 25

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricJiri Prochazka

4.99

Strikes / min

5.61

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

49%

Strike defense

45%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.49

82%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesJiri Prochazka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Jiri Prochazka(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.6|Blue -18.6

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetJiri Prochazka

By target zone

48% acc · 62%

Head

51% acc · 79%

88% acc · 33%

Body

94% acc · 21%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 90%

Distance

57% acc · 91%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

71% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Jiri Prochazka rounds

Round 1Jiri Prochazka edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:29

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jiri Prochazka edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 108

Sig Strikes

77 / 136

58%

Sig Str %

56.5%

68 / 114

Total Strikes

78 / 137

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jiri Prochazka	45 / 81	45 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Dominick Reyes	39 / 66	39 / 66	1 / 1	0
2	Jiri Prochazka	32 / 55	33 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	Dominick Reyes	24 / 42	29 / 48	0 / 0	1

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Jiri Prochazka

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8