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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jan Blachowicz won · KO/TKO

Elo1522

Elo1493

Dominick ReyesvsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1522

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricJan Blachowicz

4.99

Strikes / min

3.55

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

49%

Strike defense

52%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.98

82%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.6|Blue -28.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

26% acc · 43%

Head

36% acc · 61%

40% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 15%

91% acc · 48%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

75% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 51

Sig Strikes

41 / 89

42.5%

Sig Str %

45%

21 / 51

Total Strikes

41 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jan Blachowicz	15 / 36	15 / 36	0 / 0
1	Dominick Reyes	10 / 20	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	26 / 53	26 / 53	0 / 0
2	Dominick Reyes	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21