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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1522

Elo1515

Dominick ReyesvsDustin JacobyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:00

Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsDustin Jacoby: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Jacoby is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Dominick Reyes has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Dustin Jacoby

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1522

Elo

1515

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Nov 22

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 23

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricDustin Jacoby

4.99

Strikes / min

5.40

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

49%

Strike defense

57%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.32

82%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesDustin Jacoby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetDustin Jacoby

By target zone

58% acc · 75%

Head

14% acc · 17%

75% acc · 15%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 10%

Leg

63% acc · 83%

By position

67% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

33% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Dustin Jacoby rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns2

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 33

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

60%

Sig Str %

37%

20 / 33

Total Strikes

6 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Jacoby	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Dominick Reyes	20 / 33	20 / 33	0 / 0	0

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19