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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1522

Elo1494

Dominick ReyesvsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:43

Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Chris Weidman

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1522

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricChris Weidman

4.99

Strikes / min

3.11

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

49%

Strike defense

51%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

3.27

82%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.6|Blue -27.6

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

70% acc · 88%

Head

25% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 67%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 25%

Distance

33% acc · 33%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

80% acc · 50%

Ground

50% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Chris Weidman rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 11

Sig Strikes

3 / 6

72%

Sig Str %

50%

9 / 12

Total Strikes

10 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Weidman	3 / 6	10 / 13	1 / 4	0
1	Dominick Reyes	8 / 11	9 / 12	0 / 0	0

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20