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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1522

Elo1485

Dominick ReyesvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:46

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dominick Reyes has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1522

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Nov 22

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Anthony SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · Aug 23

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricAnthony Smith

4.99

Strikes / min

3.19

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

49%

Strike defense

44%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.44

82%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59Δ 3.44 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.0|Blue -37.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

110

74% acc · 91%

Head

39% acc · 67%

80% acc · 7%

Body

71% acc · 24%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

64% acc · 40%

Distance

44% acc · 90%

77% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

86% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes73

Takedowns0

Control3:51

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 162

Sig Strikes

21 / 46

73.5%

Sig Str %

45%

172 / 232

Total Strikes

24 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Smith	21 / 46	24 / 49	0 / 1
1	Dominick Reyes	48 / 76	53 / 82	0 / 0
2	Anthony Smith	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 3
2	Dominick Reyes	73 / 86	119 / 150	0 / 0

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25