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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Dominick Cruz won · U-DEC R5
Elo1495
Elo1492

Dominick CruzvsUrijah FaberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDominick Cruz: WrestlervsUrijah Faber: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dominick Cruz wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Cruz at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dominick Cruz has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Urijah Faber
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
1495
Elo
1492
41
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Cruz
oldest →
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest
Urijah Faber
oldest →
W
vs Frankie Saenz · Dec 15
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16
W
vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16
W
KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19
L
KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick CruzMetricUrijah Faber
3.91
Strikes / min
2.65
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
70%
Strike defense
64%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
1.54
83%
Takedown defense
58%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.30Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1569 vs 1580Strikes72.0 vs 42.9Takedowns5.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.62Form1.1 vs 0.4
Dominick CruzUrijah Faber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Urijah Faber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.5|Blue -3.5
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -36.0|Blue +36.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick CruzTargetUrijah Faber

By target zone

62
28% acc · 71%
Head
26
18% acc · 76%
8
42% acc · 9%
Body
6
40% acc · 18%
17
89% acc · 20%
Leg
2
100% acc · 6%

By position

77
32% acc · 89%
Distance
25
17% acc · 74%
6
60% acc · 7%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 18%
4
50% acc · 5%
Ground
3
100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Dominick Cruz rounds
0
even
0
Urijah Faber rounds
Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:53
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:04
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control1:19
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
87 / 261
Sig Strikes
34 / 159
33.8%
Sig Str %
22.2%
99 / 275
Total Strikes
49 / 174
3 / 7
TDs
1 / 6
33%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
3:24
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Urijah Faber4 / 1315 / 241 / 10
1Dominick Cruz10 / 2419 / 341 / 30
2Urijah Faber6 / 296 / 290 / 20
2Dominick Cruz21 / 5823 / 600 / 00
3Urijah Faber10 / 4010 / 400 / 20
3Dominick Cruz21 / 6521 / 650 / 10
4Dominick Cruz18 / 5718 / 570 / 00
4Urijah Faber7 / 447 / 440 / 10
5Urijah Faber7 / 3311 / 370 / 00
5Dominick Cruz17 / 5718 / 592 / 30

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18