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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Dominick Cruz won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Elo1359
Takeya Mizugaki

Dominick CruzvsTakeya MizugakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:01

Style matchupDominick Cruz: WrestlervsTakeya Mizugaki: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dominick Cruz wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Cruz at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dominick Cruz has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Takeya Mizugaki
Blue Corner
-560
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+475
(17%)
1495
Elo
1359
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Cruz
oldest →
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest
Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Francisco Rivera · May 14
L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15
W
vs George Roop · Sep 15
L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16
L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick CruzMetricTakeya Mizugaki
3.91
Strikes / min
3.37
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.27
70%
Strike defense
57%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
1.46
83%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.30Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1576Strikes75.0 vs 56.8Takedowns7.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.11Form1.0 vs 1.0
Dominick CruzTakeya Mizugaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.7|Blue -136.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +966.0|Blue -966.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick CruzTargetTakeya Mizugaki

By target zone

26
74% acc · 100%
Head
2
22% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

4
44% acc · 15%
Distance
2
20% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
22
85% acc · 85%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dominick Cruz rounds
0
even
0
Takeya Mizugaki rounds
Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns2
Control0:23
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
26 / 35
Sig Strikes
2 / 10
74%
Sig Str %
20%
26 / 35
Total Strikes
3 / 11
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:23
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Takeya Mizugaki2 / 103 / 110 / 00
1Dominick Cruz26 / 3526 / 352 / 20

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14