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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Dominick Cruz won · U-DEC R5
Elo1495
Elo1491
Demetrious Johnson

Dominick CruzvsDemetrious JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDominick Cruz: WrestlervsDemetrious Johnson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dominick Cruz has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Demetrious Johnson
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
1495
Elo
1491
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'3"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Cruz
oldest →
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest
Demetrious Johnson
oldest →
W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16
W
vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16
W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17
W
SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick CruzMetricDemetrious Johnson
3.91
Strikes / min
3.43
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
1.66
70%
Strike defense
67%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
3.35
83%
Takedown defense
65%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.30evenly matched on net striking+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1532Strikes90.0 vs 25.5Takedowns4.0 vs 7.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Dominick CruzDemetrious Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.3|Blue -4.3
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick CruzTargetDemetrious Johnson

By target zone

26
31% acc · 43%
Head
28
22% acc · 44%
27
90% acc · 45%
Body
24
75% acc · 38%
7
100% acc · 12%
Leg
11
69% acc · 17%

By position

30
34% acc · 50%
Distance
45
30% acc · 71%
25
100% acc · 42%
Clinch
18
72% acc · 29%
5
71% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Dominick Cruz rounds
1
even
0
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control2:17
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control2:01
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:00Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control2:42
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 4Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns2
Control2:29
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control3:12
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
60 / 120
Sig Strikes
63 / 177
50.6%
Sig Str %
35.2%
146 / 226
Total Strikes
145 / 273
10 / 19
TDs
1 / 6
53.2%
TD %
16.5%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
12:41
Ctrl Time
2:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Demetrious Johnson18 / 3834 / 551 / 30
1Dominick Cruz15 / 2640 / 551 / 20
2Demetrious Johnson15 / 3436 / 590 / 30
2Dominick Cruz18 / 3031 / 452 / 50
3Demetrious Johnson11 / 2929 / 510 / 00
3Dominick Cruz9 / 2020 / 332 / 31
4Dominick Cruz9 / 2931 / 542 / 40
4Demetrious Johnson7 / 3717 / 480 / 00
5Demetrious Johnson12 / 3929 / 600 / 00
5Dominick Cruz9 / 1524 / 393 / 50

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17