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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Cody Garbrandt won · U-DEC R5

Elo1495

Elo1487

Dominick CruzvsCody GarbrandtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Garbrandt won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDominick Cruz: WrestlervsCody Garbrandt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dominick Cruz wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Cody Garbrandt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Cruz at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Garbrandt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Dominick Cruz has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Dominick Cruz has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Cruz

Red Corner

Cody Garbrandt

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1495

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Cruz

oldest →

vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16

KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21

vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22

latest

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jun 25

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick CruzMetricCody Garbrandt

3.91

Strikes / min

2.79

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

70%

Strike defense

58%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

0.85

83%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.30Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick CruzCody Garbrandt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick CruzTargetCody Garbrandt

By target zone

23% acc · 66%

Head

29% acc · 69%

64% acc · 10%

Body

65% acc · 16%

78% acc · 24%

Leg

71% acc · 15%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 97%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Cruz rounds

even

Cody Garbrandt rounds

Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 4Cody Garbrandt edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

2Knockdowns

Round 5Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 291

Sig Strikes

68 / 195

30.2%

Sig Str %

35%

95 / 298

Total Strikes

71 / 198

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Cruz	20 / 50	20 / 50	0 / 2
1	Cody Garbrandt	12 / 38	12 / 38	1 / 1
2	Cody Garbrandt	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 0
2	Dominick Cruz	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 2
3	Dominick Cruz	20 / 70	20 / 70	0 / 2
3	Cody Garbrandt	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0
4	Cody Garbrandt	15 / 47	16 / 48	0 / 0
4	Dominick Cruz	17 / 54	17 / 54	0 / 0
5	Dominick Cruz	12 / 57	19 / 64	0 / 1
5	Cody Garbrandt	8 / 19	10 / 21	0 / 3

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18