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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Dominick Cruz won · S-DEC
Elo1495
Elo1406

Dominick CruzvsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dominick Cruz won

S-DEC

Style matchupDominick Cruz: WrestlervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Casey Kenney wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Dominick Cruz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey Kenney at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dominick Cruz has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Dominick Cruz has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Casey Kenney
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1495
Elo
1406
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Cruz
oldest →
W
vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22
latest
Casey Kenney
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20
W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20
W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20
L
vs Song Yadong · Aug 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick CruzMetricCasey Kenney
3.91
Strikes / min
4.85
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
70%
Strike defense
58%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
1.09
83%
Takedown defense
61%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.30Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1565Strikes3.6 vs 4.8Takedowns3.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.50Form-0.8 vs 0.7
Dominick CruzCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dominick Cruz(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +89.5|Blue -89.5
Recent Form
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick CruzTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

51
34% acc · 57%
Head
41
28% acc · 55%
24
69% acc · 27%
Body
10
53% acc · 14%
14
88% acc · 16%
Leg
23
88% acc · 31%

By position

85
43% acc · 96%
Distance
72
38% acc · 97%
4
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 3%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Dominick Cruz rounds
0
even
0
Casey Kenney rounds
Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns2
Control2:07
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
89 / 202
Sig Strikes
74 / 193
43.7%
Sig Str %
37.3%
115 / 229
Total Strikes
74 / 193
2 / 9
TDs
0 / 2
16.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:07
Ctrl Time
0:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Casey Kenney23 / 6323 / 630 / 00
1Dominick Cruz26 / 5626 / 560 / 20
2Casey Kenney33 / 7333 / 730 / 00
2Dominick Cruz36 / 8236 / 820 / 30
3Casey Kenney18 / 5718 / 570 / 20
3Dominick Cruz27 / 6453 / 912 / 40

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8