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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Journey Newson won · Overturned R1
Elo1406
Domingo Pilarte
Elo1459

Domingo PilartevsJourney NewsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Journey Newson won

Overturned · Round 1 · 0:38

Model Prediction: Domingo Pilarte wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Journey Newson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Domingo Pilarte at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Journey Newson has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Domingo Pilarte (53.5%).
  • Domingo Pilarte has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Domingo Pilarte
Red Corner
VS
Journey Newson
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1406
Elo
1459
36
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'5"
185.42 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Domingo PilarteL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Felipe Colares · Jul 19
L
vs Brian Kelleher · Aug 21
latest
Journey NewsonL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 19
L
KOvs Randy Costa · Sep 20
W
vs Fernie Garcia · May 22
L
vs Sergey Morozov · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Marcus McGhee · Apr 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Domingo PilarteMetricJourney Newson
1.31
Strikes / min
2.64
2.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
40%
Strike defense
64%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.56
54%
Takedown defense
43%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.65Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1485Strikes2.1 vs 2.5Takedowns2.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.40 vs 1.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Domingo PilarteJourney Newson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Domingo Pilarte(3 fights)Journey Newson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -52.7|Blue +52.7
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Domingo PilarteTargetJourney Newson

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
60% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
20% acc · 17%
1
50% acc · 100%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Domingo Pilarte rounds
0
even
1
Journey Newson rounds
Round 1Journey Newson edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 4
Sig Strikes
6 / 10
25%
Sig Str %
60%
1 / 4
Total Strikes
7 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Journey Newson6 / 107 / 130 / 00
1Domingo Pilarte1 / 41 / 40 / 00

Domingo Pilarte

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Journey Newson

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6