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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ozzy Diaz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1471

Djorden SantosvsOzzy DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ozzy Diaz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDjorden Santos: Pressure fightervsOzzy Diaz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Djorden Santos wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Ozzy Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Djorden Santos at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ozzy Diaz has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Djorden Santos has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ozzy Diaz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Djorden Santos

Red Corner

Ozzy Diaz

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

—

1481

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Djorden Santos

oldest →

vs Danny Barlow · Oct 25

SUBvs Baisangur Susurkaev · May 26

latest

Ozzy DiazL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Nov 24

KOvs Ateba Gautier · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Djorden SantosMetricOzzy Diaz

6.64

Strikes / min

5.33

6.35

Strikes absorbed / min

6.52

48%

Strike defense

61%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.00

85%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Djorden SantosOzzy Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Djorden Santos(3 fights)Ozzy Diaz(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.7|Blue -9.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Djorden SantosTargetOzzy Diaz

By target zone

115

36% acc · 88%

Head

119

50% acc · 88%

57% acc · 6%

Body

69% acc · 7%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

88% acc · 5%

By position

130

38% acc · 99%

Distance

130

51% acc · 96%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 4%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Djorden Santos rounds

even

Ozzy Diaz rounds

Round 1Djorden Santos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:02

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ozzy Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns1

Control0:24

64Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

131 / 345

Sig Strikes

135 / 261

37%

Sig Str %

52.3%

134 / 348

Total Strikes

136 / 262

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ozzy Diaz	20 / 36	20 / 36	0 / 0
1	Djorden Santos	25 / 70	25 / 70	0 / 0
2	Ozzy Diaz	51 / 97	51 / 97	0 / 0
2	Djorden Santos	49 / 135	49 / 135	0 / 2
3	Ozzy Diaz	64 / 128	65 / 129	0 / 0
3	Djorden Santos	57 / 140	60 / 143	1 / 1

Djorden Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Ozzy Diaz

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3