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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendson Ribeiro won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1440

Diyar NurgozhayvsBrendson RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendson Ribeiro won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:28

Model Prediction: Diyar Nurgozhay wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Brendson Ribeiro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diyar Nurgozhay at -430 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brendson Ribeiro threatens submissions; Diyar Nurgozhay has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Diyar Nurgozhay has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
Brendson Ribeiro has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Diyar Nurgozhay

Red Corner

Brendson Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1497

Elo

1440

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diyar Nurgozhay

oldest →

SUBvs Uran Satybaldiev · Aug 25

vs Rafael Tobias · Mar 26

latest

Brendson RibeiroL4 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Machado · Nov 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Jun 25

KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Apr 26

DECvs Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diyar NurgozhayMetricBrendson Ribeiro

4.52

Strikes / min

3.04

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

61%

Strike defense

53%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

0.85

80%

Takedown defense

21%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.71Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diyar NurgozhayBrendson Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.0|Blue -57.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diyar NurgozhayTargetBrendson Ribeiro

By target zone

24% acc · 29%

Head

37% acc · 46%

54% acc · 41%

Body

50% acc · 18%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

77% acc · 36%

By position

44% acc · 94%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diyar Nurgozhay rounds

even

Brendson Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Brendson Ribeiro edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Diyar Nurgozhay edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control0:49

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 39

Sig Strikes

28 / 58

46%

Sig Str %

54%

20 / 42

Total Strikes

29 / 60

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendson Ribeiro	23 / 50	24 / 52	0 / 1	0
1	Diyar Nurgozhay	15 / 35	16 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Brendson Ribeiro	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0	1
2	Diyar Nurgozhay	2 / 4	4 / 6	2 / 2	0

Diyar Nurgozhay

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Brendson Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8