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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dione Barbosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1486

Dione BarbosavsErnesta KareckaiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Dione Barbosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDione Barbosa: WrestlervsErnesta Kareckaite: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ernesta Kareckaite wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Dione Barbosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dione Barbosa has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ernesta Kareckaite has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ernesta Kareckaite has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dione Barbosa

Red Corner

Ernesta Kareckaite

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1542

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dione BarbosaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Miranda Maverick · Jul 24

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Apr 25

vs Karine Silva · Aug 25

DECvs Melissa Gatto · Apr 26

SUBvs Anna Melisano · Jul 26

latest

Ernesta Kareckaite

oldest →

vs Nicolle Caliari · Jan 25

vs Regina Tarin · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dione BarbosaMetricErnesta Kareckaite

2.21

Strikes / min

7.28

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

6.47

64%

Strike defense

49%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

0.75

63%

Takedown defense

81%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 1.00 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dione BarbosaErnesta Kareckaite

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dione Barbosa(6 fights)Ernesta Kareckaite(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dione BarbosaTargetErnesta Kareckaite

By target zone

43% acc · 54%

Head

31% acc · 74%

82% acc · 36%

Body

53% acc · 15%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

43% acc · 11%

By position

51% acc · 85%

Distance

33% acc · 83%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

35% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dione Barbosa rounds

even

Ernesta Kareckaite rounds

Round 1Dione Barbosa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Ernesta Kareckaite edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:57

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 3Ernesta Kareckaite edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:07

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 71

Sig Strikes

53 / 156

55%

Sig Str %

30%

87 / 124

Total Strikes

100 / 220

2 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

27.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ernesta Kareckaite	5 / 23	7 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Dione Barbosa	11 / 17	34 / 43	1 / 2	1
2	Ernesta Kareckaite	14 / 44	49 / 93	1 / 1	0
2	Dione Barbosa	8 / 17	26 / 37	1 / 3	0
3	Ernesta Kareckaite	34 / 89	44 / 102	0 / 0	0
3	Dione Barbosa	20 / 37	27 / 44	0 / 6	0

Dione Barbosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Ernesta Kareckaite

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3