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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Diego Sanchez won · S-DEC R3
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez
Elo1372

Diego SanchezvsRoss PearsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ross Pearson has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez
Red Corner
VS
Ross Pearson
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1493
Elo
1372
44
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest
Ross PearsonL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16
L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17
W
vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18
L
vs John Makdessi · Jul 18
L
KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricRoss Pearson
2.69
Strikes / min
3.68
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
0.74
46%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1536Strikes36.0 vs 45.7Takedowns1.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form-0.6 vs 0.5
Diego SanchezRoss Pearson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Ross Pearson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +120.9|Blue -120.9
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -343.0|Blue +343.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetRoss Pearson

By target zone

18
17% acc · 55%
Head
27
31% acc · 53%
13
57% acc · 39%
Body
23
72% acc · 45%
2
40% acc · 6%
Leg
1
50% acc · 2%

By position

30
24% acc · 91%
Distance
47
42% acc · 92%
3
38% acc · 9%
Clinch
3
38% acc · 6%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Sanchez rounds
0
even
3
Ross Pearson rounds
Round 1Ross Pearson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ross Pearson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Ross Pearson edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
33 / 134
Sig Strikes
51 / 122
24%
Sig Str %
41%
33 / 134
Total Strikes
51 / 122
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ross Pearson13 / 3413 / 340 / 00
1Diego Sanchez8 / 398 / 390 / 00
2Ross Pearson17 / 4117 / 411 / 10
2Diego Sanchez13 / 5113 / 510 / 10
3Ross Pearson21 / 4721 / 470 / 00
3Diego Sanchez12 / 4412 / 440 / 00

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights23