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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Diego Sanchez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1354

Diego SanchezvsPaulo ThiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paulo Thiago enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paulo Thiago has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Paulo Thiago

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1493

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Paulo ThiagoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12

vs Michel Prazeres · May 13

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13

vs Gasan Umalatov · May 14

vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricPaulo Thiago

2.69

Strikes / min

1.71

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

56%

Strike defense

63%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

1.42

46%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezPaulo Thiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Paulo Thiago(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetPaulo Thiago

By target zone

37% acc · 69%

Head

49% acc · 78%

70% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 22%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 17%

Distance

44% acc · 42%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

73% acc · 53%

57% acc · 81%

Ground

40% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Paulo Thiago rounds

Round 1Paulo Thiago edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:31

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:59

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control4:44

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 112

Sig Strikes

36 / 65

40.7%

Sig Str %

47%

73 / 139

Total Strikes

49 / 86

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 3

44.3%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paulo Thiago	24 / 43	29 / 50	1 / 2	1
1	Diego Sanchez	7 / 32	7 / 32	0 / 4	0
2	Paulo Thiago	11 / 18	14 / 22	0 / 0	1
2	Diego Sanchez	15 / 31	29 / 46	1 / 3	0
3	Paulo Thiago	1 / 4	6 / 14	0 / 1	2
3	Diego Sanchez	26 / 49	37 / 61	1 / 1	0

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Paulo Thiago

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9