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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Diego Sanchez won · DQ R3

Elo1493

Elo1492

Diego SanchezvsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

DQ · Round 3 · 3:09

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michel Pereira has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Michel Pereira

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1493

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Nov 17

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Michel Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricMichel Pereira

2.69

Strikes / min

4.46

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

1.21

46%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

18% acc · 24%

Head

38% acc · 38%

59% acc · 40%

Body

85% acc · 53%

69% acc · 36%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 92%

Distance

52% acc · 74%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

91% acc · 19%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

80% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Michel Pereira rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:10

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 64

Sig Strikes

53 / 91

35.3%

Sig Str %

58.7%

29 / 68

Total Strikes

56 / 94

0 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Pereira	16 / 27	16 / 27	0 / 0
1	Diego Sanchez	10 / 22	11 / 23	0 / 3
2	Michel Pereira	19 / 37	19 / 37	1 / 1
2	Diego Sanchez	13 / 27	14 / 28	0 / 2
3	Michel Pereira	18 / 27	21 / 30	1 / 1
3	Diego Sanchez	2 / 15	4 / 17	0 / 1

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16