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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1529

Diego SanchezvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1493

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Nov 17

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricMichael Chiesa

2.69

Strikes / min

2.02

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

56%

Strike defense

57%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

3.11

46%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.2|Blue +36.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

25% acc · 14%

Head

70% acc · 98%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 86%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 14%

Distance

57% acc · 9%

50% acc · 29%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

100% acc · 57%

Ground

73% acc · 81%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:28

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:35

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:13Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:21

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 11

Sig Strikes

47 / 67

73.3%

Sig Str %

72.3%

23 / 31

Total Strikes

98 / 132

1 / 2

TDs

5 / 6

50%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

11:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Chiesa	11 / 17	24 / 39	1 / 2
1	Diego Sanchez	4 / 5	7 / 11	1 / 1
2	Michael Chiesa	31 / 44	59 / 75	2 / 2
2	Diego Sanchez	2 / 5	3 / 6	0 / 1
3	Michael Chiesa	5 / 6	15 / 18	2 / 2
3	Diego Sanchez	1 / 1	13 / 14	0 / 0

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22