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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Diego Sanchez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1352

Diego SanchezvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Kampmann has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1493

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricMartin Kampmann

2.69

Strikes / min

3.22

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

56%

Strike defense

62%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

1.86

46%

Takedown defense

78%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.3|Blue -140.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

22% acc · 80%

Head

38% acc · 94%

57% acc · 16%

Body

57% acc · 5%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

20% acc · 61%

Distance

35% acc · 77%

41% acc · 39%

Clinch

56% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:44

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:21

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 202

Sig Strikes

77 / 200

25.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

51 / 202

Total Strikes

79 / 202

1 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Martin Kampmann	32 / 64	33 / 65	0 / 0
1	Diego Sanchez	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 5
2	Martin Kampmann	26 / 66	27 / 67	0 / 0
2	Diego Sanchez	22 / 77	22 / 77	0 / 7
3	Martin Kampmann	19 / 70	19 / 70	0 / 0
3	Diego Sanchez	19 / 88	19 / 88	1 / 3

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8