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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Sanchez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1491

Diego SanchezvsMarcin HeldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Diego Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Diego Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +250 American odds

+$250 profit

$350 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez

Red Corner

Marcin Held

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Marcin Held

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Jan 17

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · May 17

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricMarcin Held

2.69

Strikes / min

1.41

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.51

TDs / 15 min

2.46

46%

Takedown defense

37%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego SanchezMarcin Held

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Marcin Held(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetMarcin Held

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

38% acc · 100%

75% acc · 26%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 46%

Distance

33% acc · 77%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

86% acc · 54%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Sanchez rounds

even

Marcin Held rounds

Round 1Marcin Held edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:31

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control4:36

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Diego Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control4:10

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 81

Sig Strikes

30 / 82

65%

Sig Str %

40%

69 / 108

Total Strikes

57 / 112

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:17

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Held	23 / 64	32 / 73	0 / 0	1
1	Diego Sanchez	17 / 44	19 / 46	0 / 1	0
2	Marcin Held	2 / 4	11 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Sanchez	8 / 10	20 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Marcin Held	5 / 14	14 / 26	0 / 2	0
3	Diego Sanchez	21 / 27	30 / 39	0 / 0	0

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19

Marcin Held

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4