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Welterweight
3 Rounds
John Hathaway won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez
Elo1490

Diego SanchezvsJohn HathawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Hathaway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Hathaway wins(85.2%)

Actual result: John Hathaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Hathaway at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez
Red Corner
VS
John Hathaway
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1493
Elo
1490
44
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest
John Hathaway
oldest →
L
vs Mike Pyle · Oct 10
W
vs Kris McCray · Mar 11
W
vs Pascal Krauss · May 12
W
vs John Maguire · Sep 12
L
KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Mar 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricJohn Hathaway
2.69
Strikes / min
3.40
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
1.80
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
2.61
46%
Takedown defense
60%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes33.5 vs 43.0Takedowns1.4 vs 4.7Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Diego SanchezJohn Hathaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Diego Sanchez(10 fights)John Hathaway(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetJohn Hathaway

By target zone

22
25% acc · 92%
Head
63
43% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Body
9
64% acc · 11%
2
100% acc · 8%
Leg
12
92% acc · 14%

By position

24
27% acc · 100%
Distance
57
43% acc · 68%
0
Clinch
6
67% acc · 7%
0
Ground
21
64% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Sanchez rounds
0
even
3
John Hathaway rounds
Round 1John Hathaway edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:55
Knockdowns0
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:44Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2John Hathaway edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:10
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Hathaway edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
24 / 90
Sig Strikes
84 / 174
26.3%
Sig Str %
49%
25 / 92
Total Strikes
115 / 215
1 / 8
TDs
0 / 2
16.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:05
Ctrl Time
3:53

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Hathaway30 / 4958 / 860 / 00
1Diego Sanchez2 / 83 / 100 / 40
2John Hathaway22 / 4825 / 520 / 00
2Diego Sanchez10 / 3310 / 331 / 20
3John Hathaway32 / 7732 / 770 / 20
3Diego Sanchez12 / 4912 / 490 / 20

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19

John Hathaway

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6