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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez
Elo1492

Diego SanchezvsJoe LauzonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:26

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Sanchez
Red Corner
VS
Joe Lauzon
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1493
Elo
1492
44
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest
Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego SanchezMetricJoe Lauzon
2.69
Strikes / min
2.84
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
56%
Strike defense
54%
1.51
TDs / 15 min
2.39
46%
Takedown defense
54%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1518Strikes36.1 vs 19.4Takedowns1.2 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.78 vs 1.30Form0.1 vs -0.1
Diego SanchezJoe Lauzon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Diego Sanchez(10 fights)Joe Lauzon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -85.0|Blue +85.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego SanchezTargetJoe Lauzon

By target zone

3
43% acc · 50%
Head
22
67% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 17%
Leg
0

By position

5
63% acc · 83%
Distance
6
60% acc · 27%
1
50% acc · 17%
Clinch
14
74% acc · 64%
0
Ground
2
50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Diego Sanchez rounds
0
even
1
Joe Lauzon rounds
Round 1Joe Lauzon edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 10
Sig Strikes
22 / 33
60%
Sig Str %
66%
7 / 11
Total Strikes
28 / 40
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Lauzon22 / 3328 / 400 / 00
1Diego Sanchez6 / 107 / 110 / 00

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20